Wed, Nov 4
Showers
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 85%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 3.2
Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14°, lows 3° – 6°, precipitation 1.5 – 2.6 mm
14-day forecast Tsalka
Forecast as of Nov 4, 19:37
Back to TsalkaEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Thu, Nov 5
Light rain
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 1.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 93%
- Wind
- 26 km/h, gusts 53 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 2.3 – 4.8 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Light snow
- High
- 6°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 1.5 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 83%
- Wind
- 17 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
- UV index
- 3.6
Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6°, lows 1°, precipitation 0.9 – 1.6 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Light snow
- High
- 4°
- Low
- 0°
- Precipitation
- 3.1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 35%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 2° – 4°, lows -2° – 0°, precipitation 1.9 – 10.7 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Overcast
- High
- 2°
- Low
- -3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 8%
- Wind
- 30 km/h, gusts 63 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 3°, lows -4° – -1°, precipitation 0 – 1.4 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Overcast
- High
- 3°
- Low
- -3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 5%
- Wind
- 23 km/h, gusts 57 km/h
- UV index
- 3.2
Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 2°, lows -5° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 0.8 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Overcast
- High
- 4°
- Low
- -5°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 0%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:49
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 4°, lows -7° – -3°, precipitation 0 mm
Wed, Nov 11
Fog
- High
- 6°
- Low
- -6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 4%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
- UV index
- 3.3
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs -1° – 8°, lows -7° – -2°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Fog
- High
- 2°
- Low
- -6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 11%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 10°, lows -6° – 1°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Fog
- High
- 4°
- Low
- -5°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 24%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
- UV index
- 3.3
Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:46
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 11°, lows -6° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Mostly clear
- High
- 5°
- Low
- -4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:45
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 6° – 11°, lows -5° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Fog
- High
- 3°
- Low
- -4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 3%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:44
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 11°, lows -5° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16
Fog
- High
- 2°
- Low
- -4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 10%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
- UV index
- 1.5
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:43
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 7°, lows -4° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 12.6 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Tue, Nov 17partial day
Drizzle
- High
- 7°
- Low
- -3°
- Precipitation
- 0.1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 12%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:42
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 8°, lows -5° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.