14-day forecast Tsereteli

Forecast as of Nov 4, 10:51

Back to Tsereteli

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Thunderstorm

High: 21°
Low: 16°
Precipitation: 17.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 18:07

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 18° – 21°, lows 13° – 16°, precipitation 18.3 – 21.9 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 16°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 11.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 90%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 18:06

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16°, lows 11° – 12°, precipitation 8.3 – 10.6 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Showers

High: 12°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 1.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 44%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 38 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 18:05

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 0.6 – 3.2 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 11°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 24 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 2

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 18:03

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 14.9 – 26 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Showers

High: 9°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 1.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 3° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 1.8 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Partly cloudy

High: 11°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 5%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows 1° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 1.8 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 31%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 14°, lows 2° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 16°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 34%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 37 km/h
UV index: 1.4

Sunrise 08:05 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 2° – 13°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Drizzle

High: 12°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 9.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 31%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 46 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 08:07 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 19°, lows 6° – 14°, precipitation 0 – 8.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Showers

High: 11°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 28.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 44 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 08:08 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 18°, lows 8° – 16°, precipitation 0 – 27.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Showers

High: 14°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 20.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 32%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 08:09 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 18°, lows 5° – 16°, precipitation 0 – 22.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Showers

High: 13°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 19.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 35%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 0.3

Sunrise 08:11 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16°, lows 5° – 8°, precipitation 15 – 35.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Showers

High: 14°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 26 mm
Chance of precipitation: 34%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 08:12 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 15°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 30.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 14°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 1.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 37%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 08:13 · Sunset 17:53

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 16°, lows 8°, precipitation 0.3 – 1.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.