14-day forecast Tsinsvla

Forecast as of Nov 4, 06:18

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 22°
Low: 16°
Precipitation: 5.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 68%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 18:05

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 21° – 23°, lows 13° – 16°, precipitation 1.3 – 3.9 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 16°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 58.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 24 km/h, gusts 52 km/h
UV index: 0.2

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 18:03

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 10° – 11°, precipitation 55 – 88.9 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 12°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 1.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 85%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 9° – 10°, precipitation 1.4 – 18.1 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 11°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 36 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 21 km/h, gusts 49 km/h
UV index: 1.6

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 27.3 – 41.4 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Rain

High: 8°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 35.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 45 km/h
UV index: 0.9

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 4° – 8°, precipitation 21.6 – 68.9 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Light rain

High: 11°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 7.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 65%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 14°, lows 3° – 6°, precipitation 0.4 – 32.1 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Mostly clear

High: 15°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 13%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 15°, lows 0° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 5 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Mostly clear

High: 15°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16°, lows 0° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 17°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
UV index: 2

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 18° – 19°, lows 1° – 12°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 13°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 28%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 20°, lows 6° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 12°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 33%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 20°, lows 6° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Drizzle

High: 19°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 5.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 48%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 0.2

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 20°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 5.6 – 61.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 12.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 49%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 0.6

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 16°, lows 5° – 10°, precipitation 12.1 – 67.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Showers

High: 13°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 24.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 41%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 0.6

Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 17:52

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 14°, lows 4° – 11°, precipitation 24.2 – 25.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.