14-day forecast Tskhratskaro

Forecast as of Nov 3, 18:41

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Tue, Nov 3

Overcast

High: 23°
Low: 14°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 0%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 23° – 24°, lows 13° – 14°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 19°
Low: 13°
Precipitation: 2.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 70%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 19° – 22°, lows 13° – 14°, precipitation 0.2 – 1.6 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Showers

High: 15°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 16.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 31 km/h, gusts 64 km/h
UV index: 0.8

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 9°, precipitation 17.9 – 28.5 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Showers

High: 11°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 2.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 21 km/h, gusts 41 km/h
UV index: 0.9

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 7° – 9°, precipitation 1.7 – 3.7 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Showers

High: 9°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 9.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 84%
Wind: 19 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows 5° – 8°, precipitation 8.1 – 11.3 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Rain

High: 8°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 19 mm
Chance of precipitation: 96%
Wind: 27 km/h, gusts 54 km/h
UV index: 1.6

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 9°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 3.8 – 20.6 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Light rain

High: 10°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 1.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 64%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 11°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 6.3 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Partly cloudy

High: 14°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 13%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 2° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 11

Mostly clear

High: 14°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 19 km/h, gusts 44 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
UV index: 0.7

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 16°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Clear

High: 15°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 19%
Wind: 19 km/h, gusts 41 km/h
UV index: 0.7

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 6° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 4.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 23 km/h, gusts 49 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 18°, lows 6° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 2.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16partial day

Drizzle

High: 13°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 3.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 23 km/h, gusts 45 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:46

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 17°, lows 6° – 12°, precipitation 3.9 – 5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.