Tue, Nov 3
Fog
- High
- 24°
- Low
- 12°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 0%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 3.6
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 18:05
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 23° – 24°, lows 12° – 13°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Tskaltsminda
Forecast as of Nov 3, 11:33
Back to TskaltsmindaEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Showers
- High
- 20°
- Low
- 13°
- Precipitation
- 2.9 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 83%
- Wind
- 11 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 2.4
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 18:04
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 20° – 21°, lows 13° – 15°, precipitation 2.1 – 7.3 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Rain
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 14°
- Precipitation
- 37.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 100%
- Wind
- 29 km/h, gusts 57 km/h
- UV index
- 0.5
Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 18:02
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16°, lows 12° – 13°, precipitation 45.4 – 47.6 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Showers
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 11°
- Precipitation
- 10.9 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 90%
- Wind
- 22 km/h, gusts 43 km/h
- UV index
- 1.1
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 18:01
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 9° – 11°, precipitation 3.8 – 15.2 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Rain
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 10°
- Precipitation
- 24.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 98%
- Wind
- 31 km/h, gusts 61 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 18:00
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12°, lows 7° – 10°, precipitation 12.4 – 31.6 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Showers
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 20.6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 97%
- Wind
- 20 km/h, gusts 43 km/h
- UV index
- 2.3
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:59
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 7° – 9°, precipitation 9.7 – 53.6 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Showers
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 8°
- Precipitation
- 2.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 75%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:58
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 13°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 0.2 – 31.8 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Mostly clear
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:57
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 15°, lows 4°, precipitation 0 – 2.1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 11
Mostly clear
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 30%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: high
ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 4°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 37%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 18°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Overcast
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 33%
- Wind
- 18 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 20°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Mostly clear
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 8°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 31%
- Wind
- 23 km/h, gusts 44 km/h
- UV index
- 2
Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 19°, lows 8° – 12°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Drizzle
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 8°
- Precipitation
- 0.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 29%
- Wind
- 26 km/h, gusts 49 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 22°, lows 8° – 15°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Light rain
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 8°
- Precipitation
- 12.9 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 42%
- Wind
- 15 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:51
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 21°, lows 7° – 14°, precipitation 0 – 13 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.