14-day forecast Tskavroka

Forecast as of Nov 5, 14:20

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 16°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 44.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 48 km/h
UV index: 0.4

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 10° – 11°, precipitation 41.1 – 59.2 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 12°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 16.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 1.8 – 18.3 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 11°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 58.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 19 km/h, gusts 41 km/h
UV index: 1.9

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 7° – 9°, precipitation 25.9 – 56.6 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Thunderstorm

High: 9°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 61.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 20 km/h, gusts 41 km/h
UV index: 0.4

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 40.1 – 71.5 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Showers

High: 8°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 8.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 1

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 8°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 10.9 – 43.3 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Light rain

High: 13°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 49%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 5.9 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 16°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 16°, lows 2° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Light rain

High: 15°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 36%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 16°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 18°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 1.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 0.9

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 20°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 1.8 – 20.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Overcast

High: 22°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 22°, lows 6° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 15.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 21°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 23°, lows 6° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Showers

High: 22°
Low: 13°
Precipitation: 7.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 30%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
UV index: 1.3

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 23°, lows 9° – 11°, precipitation 1.5 – 3.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17

Showers

High: 14°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 72.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 55 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 18°, lows 3° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 76 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 18partial day

Drizzle

High: 13°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 2.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 08:05 · Sunset 17:50

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 19°, lows 2° – 11°, precipitation 0 – 2.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.