Thu, Nov 5
Snow
- High
- 5°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 25.9 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 100%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 2.4
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:57
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 4° – 5°, lows -1° – 1°, precipitation 26.8 – 35.7 mm
14-day forecast Tvebishi
Forecast as of Nov 5, 06:42
Back to TvebishiEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Fri, Nov 6
Overcast
- High
- 2°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 3%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
- UV index
- 4
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 0° – 3°, lows -6° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 1.5 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Snow
- High
- 2°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 11.5 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 73%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 4°, lows -7° – -2°, precipitation 6.5 – 14.3 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Snow showers
- High
- -1°
- Low
- -4°
- Precipitation
- 2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 63%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -2° – 0°, lows -10° – -3°, precipitation 4.3 – 29.3 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Snow showers
- High
- -1°
- Low
- -7°
- Precipitation
- 0.3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 9%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 3.7
Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -3° – -1°, lows -18° – -10°, precipitation 0 – 5.2 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Partly cloudy
- High
- 2°
- Low
- -8°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 5%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 3.6
Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -1° – 2°, lows -19° – -10°, precipitation 0 mm
Wed, Nov 11
Overcast
- High
- 4°
- Low
- -3°
- Precipitation
- 0.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 17%
- Wind
- 11 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 3.2
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 3° – 5°, lows -15° – -5°, precipitation 0 – 1.7 mm
Thu, Nov 12
Light snow
- High
- 1°
- Low
- -5°
- Precipitation
- 1.5 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 3.6
Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 4°, lows -9° – -8°, precipitation 0 – 3.1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Partly cloudy
- High
- 4°
- Low
- -9°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 20%
- Wind
- 2 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
- UV index
- 1.8
Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:49
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 5°, lows -10° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 17.4 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Overcast
- High
- 6°
- Low
- -8°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 16%
- Wind
- 2 km/h, gusts 10 km/h
- UV index
- 1.3
Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 6°, lows -8° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 34.5 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 9°
- Low
- -6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 20%
- Wind
- 2 km/h, gusts 8 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs -2° – 10°, lows -13° – -6°, precipitation 0 – 2.1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16
Overcast
- High
- 8°
- Low
- -4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 31%
- Wind
- 2 km/h, gusts 11 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:46
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 1° – 9°, lows -14° – -6°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Tue, Nov 17
Overcast
- High
- 9°
- Low
- -6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 30%
- Wind
- 2 km/h, gusts 10 km/h
- UV index
- 3.3
Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 17:45
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 9°, lows -8° – -6°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 18partial day
Overcast
- High
- 10°
- Low
- -4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 24%
- Wind
- 2 km/h, gusts 10 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 08:05 · Sunset 17:44
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 5° – 10°, lows -5° – -3°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.