14-day forecast Vashtiali

Forecast as of Nov 4, 06:19

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 20°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 1.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 80%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 18:03

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 20° – 23°, lows 13° – 15°, precipitation 0.4 – 2.1 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Rain

High: 16°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 29.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 29 km/h, gusts 58 km/h
UV index: 0.3

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 9° – 10°, precipitation 31 – 59.7 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 12°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 2.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 78%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 0.4 – 4 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 11°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 38.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 21 km/h, gusts 43 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 8°, precipitation 25.5 – 35.6 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Rain

High: 8°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 21.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 24 km/h, gusts 45 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 9°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 17.3 – 52.4 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Showers

High: 11°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 6.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 53%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 13°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 0.4 – 44.5 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Partly cloudy

High: 15°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13° – 15°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 8.4 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Mostly clear

High: 15°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 13%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 4° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 16°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 31%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 1.7

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 19°, lows 6° – 12°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 2.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 26%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 22°, lows 7° – 13°, precipitation 0 – 2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Showers

High: 13°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 14 mm
Chance of precipitation: 31%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 20°, lows 7° – 13°, precipitation 0 – 14.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Showers

High: 17°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 11.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 46%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 0.2

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 17°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 11.4 – 40.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 11 mm
Chance of precipitation: 44%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 1.2

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 15°, lows 5° – 11°, precipitation 10.3 – 28.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 13°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 20.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 39%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 9 km/h
UV index: 1

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:50

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 14°, lows 4° – 11°, precipitation 2 – 21 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.