14-day forecast Velistsikhe

Forecast as of Nov 3, 13:40

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Tue, Nov 3

Overcast

High: 18°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 0.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:30 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 17° – 19°, lows 11° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 0.4 mm

Wed, Nov 4

Overcast

High: 18°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 8%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:32 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 18° – 19°, lows 10° – 12°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Light rain

High: 20°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 1.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 50%
Wind: 19 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:33 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 18° – 19°, lows 9° – 12°, precipitation 0.4 – 2.1 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:34 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13° – 14°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 11°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 5.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 45%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 1.6

Sunrise 07:35 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 15°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 6.3 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 8%
Wind: 25 km/h, gusts 56 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:37 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Partly cloudy

High: 10°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 9%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:43

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Mostly clear

High: 12°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 9%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:42

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 14°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 11

Mostly clear

High: 9°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:41

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:40

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Partly cloudy

High: 12°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:39

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 13°, lows 5°, precipitation 0 – 5.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 8°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 2.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:38

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 4.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 7°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:37

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 16°, lows 3° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16partial day

Overcast

High: 9°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 17%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:36

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 20°, lows 2° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.