14-day forecast Zeda Tkhilnari

Forecast as of Nov 4, 02:04

Back to Zeda Tkhilnari

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 21°
Low: 15°
Precipitation: 3.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 70%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 18:05

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 21° – 22°, lows 13° – 16°, precipitation 3.1 – 6.5 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Heavy rain

High: 16°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 66.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 55 km/h
UV index: 0.2

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 18:04

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 16°, lows 9° – 10°, precipitation 67.2 – 91.1 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Rain

High: 11°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 17 mm
Chance of precipitation: 90%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:03

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 7° – 10°, precipitation 11.1 – 17.4 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Showers

High: 10°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 18.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 99%
Wind: 21 km/h, gusts 55 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 6° – 8°, precipitation 16.9 – 39.6 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Showers

High: 7°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 14.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 48 km/h
UV index: 0.4

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 15.6 – 70.6 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Light rain

High: 11°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 5.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 65%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 14°, lows 3° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 30.2 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Clear

High: 15°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 13%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 16°, lows 0° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Mostly clear

High: 12°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 17°, lows 0° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 28%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 20°, lows 2° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 16°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 1.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 21%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 16°, lows 4° – 13°, precipitation 0 – 3.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 17°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 11.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 18°, lows 4° – 14°, precipitation 0 – 2.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Light rain

High: 18°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 9.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 35 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 19°, lows 4° – 15°, precipitation 0.2 – 0.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16partial day

Showers

High: 13°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 11.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 35%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:53

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 18°, lows 10° – 13°, precipitation 20.8 – 26.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.