14-day forecast Zhibiani

Forecast as of Nov 5, 01:18

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Snow showers

High: 3°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 40.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
UV index: 1.5

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 2° – 3°, lows -3°, precipitation 27.6 – 47.4 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light snow

High: -1°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 0.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 65%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
UV index: 4

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -2° – -1°, lows -11° – -6°, precipitation 0 – 1.3 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Snow

High: -1°
Low: -4°
Precipitation: 8.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -3° – 0°, lows -10° – -4°, precipitation 5.6 – 8.7 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Snow showers

High: -4°
Low: -7°
Precipitation: 14.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 97%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.6

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -6° – -2°, lows -15° – -7°, precipitation 3.6 – 13.3 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Light snow

High: -4°
Low: -11°
Precipitation: 0.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 38%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 3.8

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -5° – -4°, lows -15° – -10°, precipitation 0.4 – 3.2 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: -2°
Low: -10°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 5%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 3.7

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -3° – -1°, lows -16° – -10°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 2°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 0° – 2°, lows -16° – -5°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Light snow

High: -1°
Low: -10°
Precipitation: 1.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 1.2

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs -1° – 0°, lows -12° – -5°, precipitation 3.1 – 10.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Overcast

High: 0°
Low: -12°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 17%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 2°, lows -12° – -7°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Overcast

High: 3°
Low: -11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 9%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 1° – 3°, lows -11° – -7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 6°
Low: -8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 9%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 7°, lows -7° – -5°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 5°
Low: -7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 26%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 5°, lows -8° – -4°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Overcast

High: 5°
Low: -8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 34%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:43

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 6°, lows -8° – -3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.