14-day forecast Zugdidi

Forecast as of Nov 4, 02:58

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 20°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 4.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 95%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 17° – 22°, lows 12° – 14°, precipitation 2.6 – 5.2 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 15°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 30 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 25 km/h, gusts 47 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 9° – 11°, precipitation 23.7 – 36.2 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Fog

High: 13°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 0.1 – 2.2 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Thunderstorm

High: 10°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 15.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 96%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 12°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 10 – 12.3 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Showers

High: 10°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 7.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 84%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 1.5 – 13.6 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Overcast

High: 10°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 2° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 3.1 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Partly cloudy

High: 14°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 1.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 11

Mostly clear

High: 15°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 35 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15°, lows 1° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 16°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 41 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 17°, lows 5° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 13°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 10.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 19%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 17°, lows 5° – 12°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 13°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 9.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 17°, lows 5° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Showers

High: 15°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 2.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 18° – 19°, lows 9° – 13°, precipitation 0 – 3.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Showers

High: 16°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 22.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 17°, lows 9° – 12°, precipitation 1.3 – 13 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 7.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 19%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 1.7

Sunrise 08:05 · Sunset 17:49

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

How the confidence is worked out

The models' forecasts as of Nov 3, 19:20

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.